Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research

Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research

The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Agricultural Trade

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Sepideh Nikravesh 1
Saeid Yazdani 2
Gholamreza Yavari 3
Mehdi Kazemnejad 4
1 PhD. Student Department of Agricultural Economics , Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture, Tehran, Iran
10.22059/ijaedr.2018.261169.668622
Abstract
The majority of countries in order to develop their international trade and achieve a higher share in the world market, are adopting different trade policies with taking into account the effects of factors affecting on agricultural trade. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomics factors affecting on agricultural trade using a vector autoregressive model for years 1982 to 2016. The results indicate that a shock on variables such as agricultural value added and investment in agricultural sector have positive effects on agricultural trade. While exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff have negative impacts. The results also show that the short term impact of the study variables is significantly high but it is gradually reducing over time and in long term it becomes very low. According to the results obtained from the analysis of variance, in the long term, the shock from trade, value added, investment, exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff rate have 76.7%, 3%, 8.1%, 5.4%, 5.5% and 1.2% impact on agricultural trade respectively .
Keywords
trade
Value Added
Investment
Exchange rate
Tariff
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Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research
Volume 49, Issue 4
Autumn 2018
Pages 573-586