University of Tehran Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 2008-4838 55 3 2024 09 22 The Welfare Effects of Reducing the Import Tariff in Afghanistan’s Agriculture Sector: Application of the CGE Model The Welfare Effects of Reducing the Import Tariff in Afghanistan’s Agriculture Sector: Application of the CGE Model 489 505 96981 10.22059/ijaedr.2024.370281.669282 FA Ayaz Khan Naseri Department of Agriculture Economics and Extension, University of Kabul, Kabul, Afghanistan. 0009-0002-5312-0084 Naser Shahnoushi Forushani Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. 0000-0001-5757-8311 Arash Dourandish Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran 0000-0001-7858-6644 Zahra Nematollahi Department of Nature Engineering, Shirvan Faculty of Agriculture, University of Bojnord, Shirvan, Iran 0000-0002-5091-8560 Zahra Kiani Feyzabad Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran 0000-0001-8766-5416 Journal Article 2024 01 07 The challenge of economic development is to ensure human welfare. Many studies in developing countries have focused on trade liberalization to achieve this goal. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of reducing import tariffs in the agricultural sector on households’ welfare. The study utilized a computable general equilibrium model and Afghanistan's social accounting matrix data, and measured welfare effects using the Hicksian Equivalent variations index. The findings showed that as the import tariff gradually decreased until its full elimination, household expenses increased across various scenarios. The equivalent changes, which reflect the difference between primary and secondary consumption expenditures, were positive after implementing the scenarios. The study found that reducing the import tariff rate in the agricultural sector by 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 percent increased equivalent changes by 1339, 4427, 7494, 10996 and 10996 million Afg., respectively, indicating an improvement in household welfare. The fourth and fifth scenarios had a greater welfare effect than the first. Based on the study results, it is recommended that the Afghan government focus more on trade liberalization instead of reducing agricultural tariffs. The study also suggests that, along with trade liberalization, the government should shift its focus from domestic production to meeting food needs through imports to ensure household well-being. The challenge of economic development is to ensure human welfare. Many studies in developing countries have focused on trade liberalization to achieve this goal. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of reducing import tariffs in the agricultural sector on households’ welfare. The study utilized a computable general equilibrium model and Afghanistan's social accounting matrix data, and measured welfare effects using the Hicksian Equivalent variations index. The findings showed that as the import tariff gradually decreased until its full elimination, household expenses increased across various scenarios. The equivalent changes, which reflect the difference between primary and secondary consumption expenditures, were positive after implementing the scenarios. The study found that reducing the import tariff rate in the agricultural sector by 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 percent increased equivalent changes by 1339, 4427, 7494, 10996 and 10996 million Afg., respectively, indicating an improvement in household welfare. The fourth and fifth scenarios had a greater welfare effect than the first. Based on the study results, it is recommended that the Afghan government focus more on trade liberalization instead of reducing agricultural tariffs. The study also suggests that, along with trade liberalization, the government should shift its focus from domestic production to meeting food needs through imports to ensure household well-being. https://ijaedr.ut.ac.ir/article_96981_6dec09e3b76007495b7be8ab647d85d2.pdf