University of Tehran Press Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 2008-4838 52 2 2021 06 22 Economic evaluation and analysis of the effects of climate change on alfalfa yield in Iran (With drought mitigation approach) Economic evaluation and analysis of the effects of climate change on alfalfa yield in Iran (With drought mitigation approach) 201 213 82423 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.293331.668846 FA Halimeh Jahangard Ph.D. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad Iran Habibolloh Salami Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics,Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran Naser Shahnoushi Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University,Mashhad, Iran Mehdi Kazemnejad Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development Research Institute,Tehran, Iran Mahmoud Sabuhi Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University,Mashhad, Iran Journal Article 2019 12 28 Alfalfa is the most important forage crop in Iran, which is cultivated in almost all provinces of the country. Considering the economic importance of alfalfa and its sensitivity to drought stress and its special physiological characteristics in drought resistance, this study investigates the risk of drought in different regions on the one hand and the relationship between alfalfa production and drought-determining parameters on the other hand. For this purpose, first the probability of drought in different regions of Iran was calculated based on RDI index, which showed that the probability of drought in some regions of the country is higher than other regions. Then, by estimating the climatic response function of alfalfa yield based on the time series data of 1992-2016 and using the spatial panel method, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes as the two main effective drought reversals on alfalfa yield were investigated. Based on the results of this study and taking into account climate forecasts and the status of available water resources in the future, the development of alfalfa cultivation in the northwestern and western regions of the country and limiting the cultivation of this crop in the eastern regions, will have positive economic effects. Also, using the physiological characteristics of alfalfa in dormancy with temporary cessation of irrigation and allocation of water to alfalfa rotation can be used as a strategy in managing water consumption in drought stress conditions. Alfalfa is the most important forage crop in Iran, which is cultivated in almost all provinces of the country. Considering the economic importance of alfalfa and its sensitivity to drought stress and its special physiological characteristics in drought resistance, this study investigates the risk of drought in different regions on the one hand and the relationship between alfalfa production and drought-determining parameters on the other hand. For this purpose, first the probability of drought in different regions of Iran was calculated based on RDI index, which showed that the probability of drought in some regions of the country is higher than other regions. Then, by estimating the climatic response function of alfalfa yield based on the time series data of 1992-2016 and using the spatial panel method, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes as the two main effective drought reversals on alfalfa yield were investigated. Based on the results of this study and taking into account climate forecasts and the status of available water resources in the future, the development of alfalfa cultivation in the northwestern and western regions of the country and limiting the cultivation of this crop in the eastern regions, will have positive economic effects. Also, using the physiological characteristics of alfalfa in dormancy with temporary cessation of irrigation and allocation of water to alfalfa rotation can be used as a strategy in managing water consumption in drought stress conditions. https://ijaedr.ut.ac.ir/article_82423_8ff039de4d11e5d3ad09e13762145b36.pdf