University of Tehran Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 2008-4838 46 2 2015 06 22 Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county) Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county) 385 393 54904 10.22059/ijaedr.2015.54904 FA Iraj Saleh Associate Professor Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran Mehdi Bastani MSc. Student, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran Samaneh Abedi Assistant Professor, Agricultural Economics, University of Sary, Iran Journal Article 2013 12 11 Agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the Iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. This study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of Gorgan County using Mont Carlo Stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. The results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. To sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it. Agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the Iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. This study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of Gorgan County using Mont Carlo Stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. The results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. To sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it. https://ijaedr.ut.ac.ir/article_54904_49077eb839ccd874da93cfadfb3654b0.pdf